Your Next Chief

When Gen. Norton Schwartz steps down this summer, one of these candidates will become…

By Jeff Schogol

An Air Force Academy graduate with more than 3,400 flight hours who flew both F-16s and A-10s and served under Defense Secretary Leon Panetta when he was head of the CIA has emerged as the likely next Air Force chief of staff, sources tell Air Force Times.

Gen. Mark A. Welsh III, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe, is the leading candidate to succeed Gen. Norton Schwartz, who will retire this summer after four years as the service’s top uniformed officer, said a U.S. official who was not authorized to speak on the matter.

While any one of the service’s 12 four-stars and one four-star-select could do the job, five generals join Welsh at the top of the list:

*Philip M. Breedlove, Air Force vice chief of staff.

*Edward A. Rice Jr., commander of Air Education and Training Command.

*Gilmary Michael Hostage III, commander, Air Combat Command.

*Raymond E. Johns Jr., commander, Air Mobility Command.

*William L. Shelton, commander, Air Force Space Command.

No nonrated officer has ever run the Air Force, and all but Shelton, an engineer, are pilots with at least 3,400 flying hours.

Two other top Air Force officers who lead unified combatant commands — Gen. C. Robert Kehler of U.S. Strategic Command and Gen. William M. Fraser III of U.S. Transportation Command — are not likely to be moved from their posts, a retired senior Air Force officer told Air Force Times. Gen. Douglas M. Fraser, head of U.S. Southern Command, plans to retire, but he told Air Force Times on March 13 that his retirement hasn’t been finalized.

The Air Force’s three other four-stars are Gen. Craig R. McKinley, head of the National Guard Bureau, who late last year became the first Guard chief to have a seat on the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Donald J. Hoffman and Gen. Gary L. North, who have both announced they will retire later this year. And though Schwartz had already submitted his retirement papers when he was called back to serve as chief, North and Hoffman have not been mentioned in recent weeks as likely candidates.

Hoffman’s successor at Air Force Materiel Command, Lt. Gen. Janet C. Wolfenbarger, will become the Air Force’s first female four-star if she is confirmed by the Senate. She is an unlikely candidate for the chief of staff job because she will be just moving into her first four-star command, though Hostage was considered a potential candidate for chief last summer — before pinning on his fourth star in September — when it looked like Schwartz might be tapped for vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The next chief of staff will probably be a general officer who has worked with the defense secretary, who ultimately recommends to the president who the next chief will be, the retired senior officer said. That bodes well for Welsh, who worked at the CIA from August 2008 to December 2010, and Breedlove, currently the Air Force vice chief of staff.

The most likely candidates for the chief of staff’s job should also have between 1.5 and two years’ experience in their current position as well as experience working in Washington and joint service, the retired officer said. Both Welsh and Johns meet those criteria, but what sets Welsh apart is that he also has experience with acquisition — a major part of the chief’s job.

Through a spokesman, Welsh declined to comment for this story. The Defense Department also would not talk about who the next chief of staff would be.

Retired Lt. Gen. Jack L. Rives, who has known Welsh for about 20 years, calls him an “extraordinarily capable leader.” “He communicates as well as anyone I’ve ever been around — better than just about everyone,” Rives said. “I’ve talked to a lot of people he’s worked for and they tend to be mesmerized by his leadership capabilities.”

A 1976 graduate of the Air Force Academy, Welsh has commanded a fighter squadron, an operations group, a fighter wing and a training wing. He also served as vice commander of Air Education and Training Command and commandant of cadets at the academy.

Last November, Welsh returned to the academy to give a rousing speech about why cadets need to prepare to lead airmen.

“Leadership is a gift,” he said. “It’s given by those who follow, but you have to be worthy of it. The men and women that you are going to be responsible for are the greatest people on the planet. You better be getting ready to lead them.”

“If you let them down, I will track you down and I will hurt you, and that’s going to be really embarrassing considering how old I am,” he added.

In his speech to cadets, Welsh explained that they will need to get to know the airmen whom they will lead. He recalled one staff sergeant whom he got to know in South Korea. One night, the staff sergeant’s supervisor told Welsh that the airman had an urgent problem.

The staff sergeant had a 4-year-old daughter from a marriage that had ended in divorce. The girl’s mother was going to jail on drug charges, and the only other relative who could take care of the girl was her grandmother, who had just been released from jail on a drug offense.

“The judge had said whoever gets custody of this girl has got to be close enough that I can see this little girl every six to eight weeks because I’m worried about her,” Welsh said. “So he can’t compete because his follow-on assignment is to Spangdahlem, Germany.”

The staff sergeant had been too proud to ask for help, so he had been trying to work the assignment system for months to get stationed close to his daughter, with no success.

“After hearing the story, we kind of confirmed some facts; I called up the judge, talked to him, he agreed that at the final custody hearing, which was Monday — this was Friday night in Korea — he could compete if he was living closer,” Welsh said.

Undaunted, Welsh called a man he knew named Jimmy who was in charge of assignment systems.

“I said, Jimmy, I need some help. I told him the story. Jimmy said, ‘What do you want?’ I said, I want him assigned to Luke Air Force Base and I want him to be there Sunday.

“He said, ‘OK, put him on an airplane and the orders will meet him.’ ” A couple of months later, Welsh got a thank-you note from the staff sergeant, who had gained full custody of his daughter.

As Welsh recalled this story for the cadets, he somberly posed a question to them: Why hadn’t he known that the staff sergeant had a daughter?

“It’s not complicated,” he said. “I never asked him. I never asked him. I almost cost him his daughter. I almost cost her a family. By the way, so did his squadron commander, group commander, chiefs, first sergeants — none of us asked him.” It was the airman’s supervisor, who had only been on the job for four days, who discovered the staff sergeant’s problem.

“Folks, every airman has a story,” Welsh said. “Everybody in this room has a story. If you don’t know the story, you can’t lead the airman. It’s that simple. Please learn the story.”

In August 1999, Welsh gave another speech at the academy in which he talked about his experi­ences during the Persian Gulf War. He became choked with emotion recalling how he wrote a letter to his family the night before the war started in case he was killed.

“If you haven’t tried to tell your children that you’re sorry you won’t be there to see their next ballet recital, or to watch them play Little League baseball, or high school football, or graduate from college, or meet their future spouse, or get to know your grandkids; or if you haven’t had the pleasure of telling your parents how important they were to you, and trying to do it on a piece of paper at midnight, 9,000 miles away from them; or trying to tell your spouse how the sun rises and sets in her eyes — then you haven’t lived,” he said. “I’d recommend it. I won’t forget writing that letter.”

Prophetically, Welsh told the cadets they would soon experience war themselves.

“War is a horrible, horrible, horrible thing,” he said. “There is nothing good about it, but it is sometimes necessary, and so somebody better be good at it. I am … you better be.”

Schwartz’s No. 2

As vice chief since January 2011, Breedlove has worked with Panetta, giving him an advantage. Breedlove graduated from Georgia Institute of Technology’s ROTC program in 1977. He has more than 3,500 flight hours in F-16s, T-37s and C-21s.

His assignments have included: director for strategic plans and policy on the Joint Staff; comman­der of 3rd Air Force at Ramstein Air Base, Germany; and deputy chief of staff for operations, plans and requirements.

In August, Breedlove caused a stir among Air Force Times readers when he talked about the importance of diversity at the Tuskegee Airmen’s 40th National Conference.

“Groupthink is the worst thing you can have when you have a problem,” he said. “If there are all male Caucasians sitting around the table, you have groupthink.” When asked for comment from Breedlove for this story, the spokesman for Breedlove and Schwartz replied with a statement that did not indicate whether Breedlove is being considered as the next chief of staff.

“The chief of staff of the Air Force is appointed for a period of four years by the president, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate,” Lt. Col. Sam Highley wrote in an email. “Until such time there is a White House announcement, we have nothing to provide on potential transition scenarios. In the meantime, Gen. Schwartz remains focused on his duties as chief of staff of the Air Force, and his responsibility to ensure the Air Force remains an agile, flexible and effective force prepared to defend America and her interests.”

AETC leader

Another possible contender is Rice, an academy graduate who took over at AETC in November 2010. He has more than 3,900 flight hours in the B-1B, B-52, B-2 and C-130H, among other aircraft. Rice has served as head of the Air Force Recruiting Service and with the Coalition Provisional Authority, which was in charge of Iraq immediately after the fall of Saddam Hussein.

He has been at AETC long enough to put him in the running for chief, but lacks the recent Washington experience that would make him stand out from the other contenders, the retired senior Air Force officer said.

In February 2011, Rice told Air Force Times that AETC would have to be flexible to achieve its objectives in the future.

“As we look to the future, some will see challenges,” he said. “I think we also have many opportunities to look at how we accomplish our mission, to do it more effectively, to do it more efficiently.” Asked to comment, an AETC spokesman provided Air Force Times with the same statement provided by Breedlove’s spokesman.

Back on the list

Hostage has led Air Combat Command since September, when his quick Senate confirmation to four-star sparked rumors that he would soon replace Schwartz. Shortly after it was announced that Schwartz would not become vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Hostage took command of ACC.

A graduate of Duke University, he has more than 4,000 flight hours under his belt, including more than 600 combat hours in operations Desert Shield, Desert Storm, Southern Watch, Enduring Freedom, Iraqi Freedom and New Dawn.

Before taking the helm at ACC, Hostage was commander of U.S. Air Forces Central Command, Southwest Asia, during which he was in charge of operations in a 20-nation area of responsibility.

“My multiple tours of CENTCOM have reaffirmed to me that the freedom we have in America is precious and must be nurtured every day,” Hostage said when he took command.

Hostage probably hasn’t been in his position long enough to make him a candidate for chief, the retired senior Air Force officer told Air Force Times.

“From an ACC perspective, it’s not for us to comment or speculate about Gen. Hostage’s future opportunities to serve,” command spokesman Lt. Col. Tad Sholtis said in an email. “Right now he’s focused on taking care of ACC airmen as they fight today’s fight and prepare for the unpredictable and challenging future envisioned by the Department of Defense’s new strategic priorities.”

Mobility pilot

Johns has been head of Air Mobility Command since November 2009. He graduated from the academy in 1977 and logged 4,500 flight hours in a variety of aircraft as a command and test pilot.

Johns has extensive experience working in Washington, and served as deputy chief of staff for strategic plans and programs before coming to Air Mobility Command. He has experience with the Air Force budget, but is probably more likely suited to head U.S. Transportation Command, the retired senior officer said.

In September 2010, Johns told the Air Force Association he was concerned about the rising number of airmen committing suicide.

“I understand a loss in combat,” Johns said. “I, perhaps, understand a loss in training. But, I can’t ever accept a loss to suicide. We can’t control it all, but we must do our utmost. Moms and dads give us their sons and their daughters and they serve our nation. We want to return them to a productive and fruitful life.”

Through a spokesman, Johns declined to comment for this story.

Space and cyber czar

Shelton has helmed Air Force Space Command since January 2011. He is in charge of more than 42,000 personnel in 134 locations worldwide.

Prior to joining Space Command, the academy graduate held a number of joint assignments at U.S. Strategic Command.

Shelton may be too junior to be the next chief, but the job is a political assignment, so he’s certainly not out of the running, the retired senior officer said.

In February 2011, Shelton emphasized the importance of cyber operations by giving a pointed warning to commanders who deny or delay cyber tasking orders.

“You need to understand what you have just done to all your brothers and sisters out there,” he said at the Air Force Association’s winter symposium.

A Space Command spokesman declined to comment for this story.

Tough road ahead

Whoever is nominated as the next Air Force chief of staff will pick up where Schwartz leaves off — with the thankless job of cutting personnel and aircraft as part of a wider effort to trim defense spending.

Under Schwartz’s tenure, the Air Force increased the number of surveillance flights in Afghanistan, completed its mission in Iraq, took part in disaster relief efforts in Japan following the March 2011 earthquake and was a vital part of the coalition efforts to oust former Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

But his time as chief also saw scandals at the Port Mortuary at Dover Air Force Base, Del., includ­ing revelations that troops’ remains had been mishandled and partial remains of Sept. 11 victims had been dumped at a landfill.

Schwartz came to his current position in August 2008 after his predecessor and the Air Force secretary were fired by then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates over the service’s mishandling of nuclear weapons.

At the time, the Air Force was shedding personnel to pay for expensive aircraft, but Gates immediately put a halt to that.

Gates had also chastised the Air Force for not putting enough effort into unmanned drones and other intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft, so Schwartz immediately set out to correct matters.

Facing the need for more than 1,600 flight-rated officers, the Air Force more than doubled the eligibility pool for aviation bonuses and reached out to retirees and inactive reservists up to 60 years old. But by November 2009, high retention as a result of the poor economy forced the Air Force to resort to personnel cuts again.

Last summer, squabbles in Congress about whether to raise the country’s debt ceiling led to an agreement that the Defense Department would cut nearly $500 billion in spending over the next decade — and possibly another $500 billion if lawmakers fail to agree on other spending cuts.

The Air Force’s base budget took the largest cut of all the services. The proposed cuts would hit the Air National Guard and Reserve the hardest, leading to resistance from the reserve component, state governors and members of Congress.

Speaking to the Air Force Association in February, Schwartz said the personnel cuts were painful and indicated there would be more tough times ahead.

“These past several years have been fraught with numerous challenges, and with the trajectory that has been set by the Air Force budget, excluding contingency funding … we fully expect that we will be making additional tough calls,” Schwartz said.

The next chief of staff will have plenty on his plate aside from future budget cuts. Issues include healing the rift between the active-duty Air Force and the Guard and Reserve, dealing with lawmakers up in arms over cuts to National Guard units and overseeing the transition of the Air Force’s mission in Afghanistan — all with the potential for conflict with Syria and Iran.

Meanwhile, the next chief will have to hold down costs on the new strategic bomber, which is already expected to cost $550 million per aircraft, and try to get the F-35 program ready for full production despite continuing speed bumps.

“We have no illusions that the road ahead is going to be easy, as I discovered this morning on the Hill,” Schwartz said at a Feb. 20 forum hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C., think tank. “But I do think it’s manageable if — if — we all deal with this in an unemotional fashion.”

Staff writer Brian Everstine contributed to this report.